Eurasian Market Roundup – 13th May 2018

Eurasian Market Roundup – 13th May 2018 – MOEX Russia (IMOX) ended Friday on a positive note, rising 1.40% to 2345. Performers included Lukoil (MCX:LKOH) which was up 3.49% on the day. 

At the end of trading in Moscow, the MOEX Russia had added 1.40% and managed to hit a new 1-month high. 

Top performers on the day were were Lukoil (MCX:LKOH), which was up 3.49% or 148.0 points to trade at 4383.0. Meanwhile, Gazprom PAO (MCX:GAZP) gained 2.95% to end at 150.70 and Moskovskaya Birzha OAO (MCX:MOEX) traded up 2.55% or 3.06 points to 123.06. 

Under performers were NPK OVK PAO (MCX:UWGN), faling 2.43% to trade at 721.5. Aeroflot (MCX:AFLT) declined 1.65% or 2.30 points to end at 137.50 and Polyus OAO (MCX:PLZL) was down 1.33% or 52.0 points to 3868.0. 

Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Moscow Stock Exchange by 117 to 88 with 26 ending unchanged. 

Shares in Lukoil (MCX:LKOH) rose to all time highs; gaining 3.49% or 148.0 to 4383.0. Shares in Gazprom PAO (MCX:GAZP) rose to 52-week highs; up 2.95% or 4.32 to 150.70. 

The Russian VIX, which measures the implied volatility of MOEX Russia options (much like the widely quoted S&P500 VIX), was down 17.76% to 17.740 a new 3-months low. A lower VIX read signals traders believe marketmovements over the next 30 days will be more subdued leading to lower velocity of share price movements. 

Gold Futures for delivery in June was down 0.05% or 0.70 to $1321.60 an ounce. Crude oil for June fell 0.50% or 0.36 to hit $71.00 a barrel and the July Brent oil contract fell 0.17% or 0.13 to trade at $77.34 a barrel. 

USD/RUB was up 0.32% to 61.9088, while EUR/RUB rose 0.71% to 74.0500. 

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.27% at 92.32 

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The week ahead 

Russia 

On Thursday 17th May Russia will report year in year GDP figures with the expectation of a 1.1% increase compared with a .09% increase in the previous reading. 

Russia’s GDP (gross domestic product) grew by 0.9 percent year on year in the 4th quarter of 2017, easing from an upwardly revised 2.2 percent advance which was reported in the period previous. Weaker expansion was mainly due to a decline in manufacturing, mining and agriculture output. Considering 2017 full year, GDP growth was validated at 1.5 percent, compared with a 0.2 percent contraction in 2016. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Russia averaged 2.99 percent from 1996 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 12.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 1999 and a record low of -11.20 percent in the second quarter of 2009. 

Armenia 

The Armenian Central Bank will announce on Wednesday May 16 th its Interest rate decision. The consensus is for it remain at 6%. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) left its key rate at a steady 6 % in the previous meeting held March of 2018. Decisionmakers noted inflation is expected to remain low in the upcoming months. However, they reinforced it will be necessary to gradually neutralize monetary stimulus in the mid-term to bring inflation back to target of around 4 percent. Interest Rate in Armenia averaged 7.75 percent from 2010 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.50 percent in February of 2015 and a record low of 6 percent in February of 2017. 

Kyrgyzstan Industrial Production 

On Thursday 15th May Kyrgyzstan release Industrial Production figures with the expectation being a 11.9% increase compared to a 9.4% decline in the previous reading. 

Industrial production in Kyrgyzstan fell 9.4 percent year-on-year in March of 2018, following an 8.5 percent gain in the previous month. It is the first decline in industrial production since a 24.2 percent slump last October. Industrial output dropped for manufacturing (-9 percent compared to 6.7 percent in February). Other areas including electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply (-0.1 percent compared to 11.9 percent) and mining (-34.2 percent compared to 17.3 percent), led by a drop in metal ores (-56.7 percent compared to -9.1 percent) and mining of coal & lignite (-20 percent compared to 71.8 percent). Meanwhile, production slowed for water supply & waste treatment (4.2 percent compared to 8.6 percent). Industrial Production in Kyrgyzstan averaged 5.02 percent from 1999 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 105.80 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -44.10 percent in December of 2011. 

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